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probality and statistics
In the eyes of statistics and mathematics, the market of Forex can be compared to a roulette.
The roulette's methods are always be conditioned by the maximum bet, decided in advance by the casino.
We have always thought that without this limit and the presence of zero or zeros (for the American roulette) winning could be more easy.
Then let's see which are the considerations we can do comparing the market Forex to the roulette. Without too much complicating, we take account of the things which are called in the roulette's play "easy chances", that is the red and black. In roulette can go out a red or a black number, except the zero.

How is possible take a blow of the roulette in the Forex market? For example according to the time's adjustment. Let's see.
For example, if we control the value of a currency after 5 minutes or after 10 minutes or after 15 minutes and so on, the normal fluctuation in pips can be calculated analysing statistically the currency.
The positive fluctuation will be our red and the negative fluctuation will be our black; it's clear that the fluctuation won't be certainly alike and constant. So we can think in a different way: we choose a currency and regard it about 100 value and, when it will climb about 10 pips, we close the operation: it looks like a red in the roulette's play.

We can suppose that it can come down instead of 4 pips and, believing a spread of 3 pips, we can exit to the operation, we consider the fact as it would be come up the black. Why + 10 pips? And why – 4 pips? These differences have to be made by the presence of the spread which, in this case, we have considered it equal to 3 pips.
10 pips – 3 pips =+ 7 pips (gain); -4 pips -3 pips= -7pips (loss).

Talking in a statistic way, it's obvious that it's easily forecast an higher defeats' number than the wins too, because we have to earn 10 pips for joining +7 pips and if we loose 4 pips we loose -7 pips. The spread's incidence is very heavy.
If we close the position to +100 pips in winning and to -94 in loss (with spread of 3 pips), instead of waiting for gaining +10 pips, the spread's weight can be considered nearly insistent.

However, the variation of 100 pips is not easily perceptible. Then we can think in a different way: instead of " in time's order", we'll reason " according to the money won or loss". So the things change.
Let's think about the problem in this way: if I have an fluctuation, for example of 10 euro or dollar or any values, I will close my position.
If I had won, I consider it as it would have come up the red, and if I had defeated like it would come up the dark.
The time for these operations could be certainly different, but in this case I can consider the done transaction like it was gone out dark or red at the roulette.
I will consider the spread in the transaction too: the gains and the losses will have to be of an equal amount!
At this point all strategies use for the easy changes for the roulette can be also applied at the market of Forex and the leaver will use when I want to plan my operative strategy with a a total amount.

Lever = Total amount
Shall I say: it's perilous enter to the Forex' market?
Considering that gamble means hazard, adventure, insecurity, if we ask positively to this question, that means we believe in having success in Forex just for luck.
It's the right interpretation?
It's certainly the exact if we have entered only one time in the market and, without knowing nothing about this, we have opened a position on a cross and we have resulted winning or not.

The result of our transaction should be only more or less favourable to the luck.
But we can study the phenomenon, which they present during our trading, in a patient and clever way, so we can determine a strategy that it could us drive to the success.
If we act in this way we will be managed to define those are the "rules of the case" or the so – called "market's unpredictability", in a exact way.
The done studies about the "simple chances" of the roulette we can apply them for determining the winning strategies.
Is it more unforeseeable the exit of red or of black in the roulette's play or in Forex market?

 
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